题目：为什么中美未来不可能发生冷战？（Why a Future Sino-U.S. Cold War is Unlikely)
主讲人：芝加哥大学政治学系教授佩普（Robert A. Pape)
主持人：范士明老师
时间：2014年3月12日上午10-12点
地点：B117
简历：
佩普教授是美国著名国际安全和战略研究学者，在强制外交、经济制裁、软制衡和恐怖主义等问题上都做出了具有开创性的理论研究，在国际学界具有广泛的影响。2008年美国总统大选期间，佩普曾担任奥巴马的顾问。曾先后在美国空军大学及达特茅斯学院任教，现为芝加哥大学政治学系终身教授。
论文摘要：
A recent air zone dispute in the East China Sea has caused many to wonder: is China finally beginning to assert its military power? Is this the start of a “new cold war?” The answer, in short, is no. If the United States were truly about to enter a cold war with China, we would be seeing security competition marked by arms races, the deployment of conventional troops, and legitimate threats to use force if certain lines are crossed. Why hasn’t this happened? Specifically, there are two major incentives pushing against a new cold war. First, I find that nuclear escalation between superpowers in the 21st century is “predictably unpredictable.” As a crisis escalates to the next stage, both states lose more control over the situation—and this loss of control becomes well-known to both sides. This incentivizes both states to dampen crises in the earliest stages. Second, China has a major security interest in maintaining an American military presence in East Asia. With U.S. troop presence in East Asia, China faces a single “adversary” in a relatively balanced bipolar environment; in the absence of U.S. troops, China faces an imbalanced multipolar environment, a conglomerate of weaker adversaries (Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) who would doubt their own security and thus be more likely to act rashly. So while crises and skirmishes may occur from time to time, neither the United States nor China will break the peace. In fact, these conditions will encourage them to build stronger ties and to find new avenues for strategic cooperation.